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Aso Must Call a Lower House Election by September 6 at
the latest.
Under Japan’s constitution and election laws, elections
for the Lower House can be called at any time, with a campaign period of
just 12 days, up to four years after the date of the last election. Although most prime ministers call
elections early to avoid the risk of having to face the voters at an
inopportune moment, the LDP under Aso has managed to postpone the polls so
long that they are on the verge of pressing up against the four-year
deadline. Because the last election was
held on September 11, 2005, and elections must be held on Sundays, the last
possible date on which Aso could schedule the election is September 6. Pundits are predicting an election in
late July or August.
With so little time before the election, the
parties are already in full election mode.
To learn which candidates are standing in each district, check out
the JANJAN
website (in Japanese). To find a
specific district, click on the prefecture and then on the district number. The site provides information on the vote
totals in each district from 2005 and 2003.
On July 29, Prime Minister Abe Shinzō presided
over one of the LDP’s worst showings ever in an Upper House poll. The party won just 37 seats of 121 up for
election, but Abe refused to resign.
With his coalition now holding just 103 seats in the Upper House
(down from 133 before the election), Abe now faces the unenviable task of
trying to shepherd legislation through a chamber which is under the control
of the opposition Democratic Party of Japan. The DPJ won a record 60 seats on July 29
and now holds more seats than the LDP and Kōmeitō combined: a
total of 109.
Abe started the election campaign effectively
in the hole, since his party had done relatively poorly in the last Upper
House election in July 2004. Of the
121 members continuing (not up for election this year), just 57 were from the
LDP and Kōmeitō. As a
result, the coalition parties needed to win at least 65 seats to hold onto
a majority in the Upper House. But
with a succession of corruption scandals and news that the government had
lost track of the names attached to 50 million pension accounts (!) leading
the public to turn sour on the Abe cabinet, the coalition was able to win
just 46 seats.
Although the loss of the Upper House does not
force a prime minister to resign because cabinets are elected by the more
powerful Lower House where the LDP and Kōmeitō still have a
two-thirds majority, it will make it difficult for the cabinet to win
approval for legislation. While the
Lower House can override an Upper House “veto” of any legislation it passes
with a two-third vote, this power may prove difficult to wield if the DPJ,
under wily leader Ozawa Ichirō, is able to delay legislation until
Diet sessions expire. Ozawa has
threatened to use this power to force an early Lower House election.
For detailed coverage of the election, in
Japanese, please see these websites:
UH-2007 Asahi Shimbun
Election Special (in Japanese)
UH-2007 Yomiuri
Shimbun Election Special (in Japanese)
UH-2007 Nikkei Shimbun
Election Special (in Japanese)
Prime
Minister Koizumi’s risky bet paid off when his Liberal Democratic Party won
a landslide victory. His party won
296 seats, more than the party has won in any election since 1986. As a share of seats, the LDP’s 296/480
(61.7 percent) was actually larger than the 300/511 (58.7 percent) that
Nakasone won in 1986. The LDP’s
coalition partner, Kōmeitō, won another 31 seats, giving the
ruling coalition a mandate to carry out the postal reforms that had been
blocked by opponents inside Koizumi’s party. The LDP virtually swept the single member
district in Tokyo,
suburban Kanagawa, and other urban and suburban areas where the opposition
Democratic Party of Japan had been doing well. The Democrats’ seat total fell from 177
at the last election to 113 at this one.
DPJ leader Okada Katsuya resigned to take responsibility for the
party’s defeat.
Koizumi
called this Lower House election two years early after failing to bully LDP
opponents of his postal privatization plan into following his lead on this
issue (he lost a critical Upper House vote on postal privatization on
August 8). After calling the
election, Koizumi did everything he could to make the election a referendum
on his postal reform plan. He refused
to allow the 37 LDP members of the Lower House who voted against his postal
reform plan to run under the LDP banner and has lined up “assassin”
candidates to run against all of the rebels who are contesting single
member district seats. Just 17 of
those “rebels” won election, most of them as independents. It appears unlikely that Koizumi will
allow any of them back into his party since it has more than it needs in
the Lower House.
2004 Upper House Election Results: DPJ Wins More Seats
than the LDP
Prime
Minister Koizumi's two-party coalition held onto its majority in the Upper
House, despite doing poorly in the election held on July 11, 2004. The
result was good enough for Koizumi to avoid having to resign to take
responsibility for the defeat, but the LDP actually won fewer seats than
the DPJ (49 for the LDP, 50 for the DPJ). The coalition retained a majority
because the LDP's partner, Komeito, won another 11 seats in this election,
and because the two parties had a strong majority among the half of the
Upper House that was not up for election this time. The balance of power in
the UH after the election looks like this: LDP 115, DPJ 82, Komeito 24, JCP
9, SDPJ 5, Independents 7. For coverage of the election by the major
Japanese media organizations, see the following:
UH-2004 Asahi Shimbun
Election Special (in Japanese)
Lower House Election News from November 2003
The
ruling coalition led by Prime Minister Koizumi held onto power by winning
275 seats in the Lower House election held on November 9, 2003. Meanwhile
the Democratic Party of Japan bolstered its claim to being the only viable
alternative to the LDP in the emerging two-party system by winning 177
seats, a postwar record for a party other than the LDP. Click here for a breakdown of the
results by party. For an archive of election coverage and complete district-by-district
results, check out the 2003 election special websites of the major Japanese
media organizations.
The 2003 Nikkei
Shimbun Election Special (in Japanese)
The Best Japanese-Language
Websites on Japanese Politics
The
best Japanese-language websites on Japanese politics, other than those
maintained by the major newspapers and linked above, are Seiron and Senkyo Johokan. The frequently
updated Seiron site analyzes the parties'
platforms to assist voters in choosing a party. The Senkyo Johokan site provides
election results for all Japanese elections (including by-elections) going
back to the Upper House election in 2001 and the Lower House election of
2000.
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